Base rate frozen at 0.5 per cent, but when might it change?

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  • | by Kristian Dando
The Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England has elected to keep the base rate of interest frozen at 0.5 per cent. It doesn't look like changing in the immediate future. With predictions of experts wide of the mark so far, News has taken a look at the betting odds for when the base rate might change. After this afternoon’s announcement, November this year appears to be the most likely month in which a change could take place, with William Hill giving odds of 5/2. According to the bookmaker, a change next year is the second most likely occurrence, with odds of 7/2. A change next month looks particularly unlikely, with William Hill offering relatively long odds of 12/1 for an increase or decrease of the base rate in July. The odds for a change in August are 5/1, with September, October and December all having a 6/1 likelihood of seeing an alteration of the base rate, according to the bookmaker. Steve Calvert, financials product manager at William Hill, said: “We know that at some point the base rate has to go up – it has been at the record low of 0.5 per cent since March 2009. When it will move is difficult to estimate but William Hill is siding with some of the city banks and thinks that a move in November is most probable, and have marked as 5/2 favourite. There are whispers around London analysts that it may move as soon as August – a 5/1 chance. Others stand stubborn that we will be well into 2012 before we see it going up.”